Post-election swings

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So the Australian federal election of 2022 is over as far as the public is concerned; all votes have been cast and now it's a matter of waiting while the Australian Electoral Commission tallies the numbers, sorts all the preferences, and arrives at a result. Because of the complications of the voting system, and of all the checks and balances within it, a final complete result may not be known for some days or even weeks. What is known, though, is that the sitting government has been ousted, and that the Australian Labor Party (ALP) will lead the new government. Whether the ALP amasses enough wins for it to govern with a complete majority is not known; they may have a "minority government" in coalition with either independent candidates or the Greens.

In Australia, there are 151 federal electorates or "Divisions"; each one corresponds to seat in the House of Representatives; the Lower House of the Federal government. The winner of an election is whichever party or coalition wins the majority of seats; the Prime Minister is simply the leader of the major party in that coalition. Australians thus have no say whatsoever in the Prime Minister; that is entirely a party matter, which is why Prime Ministers have sometimes been replaced in the middle of a term.

My concern is the neighbouring electorates of Cooper and Wills. Both are very similar both geographically and politically; both are Labor strongholds, in each of which the Greens have made considerable inroads. Indeed Cooper (called Batman until a few years ago) used to be one of the safest Labor seats in the country; it has now become far less so, and in each election the battle is now between Labor and the Greens. Both are urban seats, in Melbourne; in each of them the southern portion is more gentrified, diverse, and left-leaning, and the Northern part is more solidly working-class, and Labor-leaning. In each of them the dividing line is Bell St, known as the "tofu curtain". (Also as the "Latte Line" or the "Hipster-Proof Fence".)

Thus Greens campaigning consists of letting the southerners know they haven't been forgotten, and attempting to reach out to the northerners. This is mainly done with door-knocking by volunteers, and there is never enough time, or enough volunteers, to reach every household.

Anyway, here are some maps showing the Greens/Labor result at each polling booth. The size of the circle represents the ratio of votes: red for a Labor majority; green for a Greens majority. And the popup tooltip gives the name of the polling booth, and the swing either to Labor or to the Greens.

I couldn't decide the best way of displaying the swings, so in the end I just displayed the swing to Labor in all booths with a Labor majority, even if that swing was sometimes negative. And similarly for the Greens. Note that a large swing may correspond to a relatively small number of votes being cast.

The Division of Cooper

The Division of Wills